Tuesday, August 04, 2009

They Warned Us



President Obama warned us it would get worse before it got better. I warned you that 10% unemployment seems to be some kind of psychological tipping point. Bad news. It’s getting darker. (Click on the images to enlarge.)

April Unemployment




June Unemployment




The good news is that the economy seems to leveling off (if not exactly climbing.) So, rationally, the unemployment situation shouldn’t be too worrying -- it was expected and the underlying conditions are improving. But that reminds me of a saying I learned of in this crisis.

"The markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.“

(Supposedly, Keynes said it. But I haven’t been able to find it from a reliable source. I did find “There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world “ here. I sure can get off on a tangent...)

Anyway, it was irrational behavior that got us into this mess. If we can keep our wits about us whilst others are losing theirs, we should be all right. Admittedly, a big “if”.

(Oops. Almost forgot. Hat tip to Krugman.)

Don Brown
August 4, 2009

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