They Shoot Horses Don’t They ?

Think about these quotes in terms of the Press reporting on NextGen -- or almost any issue in air traffic control -- and see if they make sense to you.

”1. It’s easier to research horse-race stuff. To report on policy, a reporter has to master the policy issues fairly well. That’s not easy, especially for journalists who have specialized in up close and personal rather than wonkery — and policy issues change from year to year. ”

”2. It’s easier to write horse-race stuff. Even if you know the policy issues, writing them so you don’t totally lose your audience is really tricky — I’ve spent years trying to learn the craft, and it still often comes out way too dry.”

”3. It’s safer to cover the race. If you cover policy, and go beyond dueling quotes, you have to make some factual assertions — and people who prefer to believe otherwise will get mad.”

That last quote helps explain one of the reasons I never enabled comments on my blog. I know people disagree with me. I went through most of my career with most of the controllers I worked with disagreeing with me. Been there, done that and it takes a lot of time. If some other controller (or whatever) wants to expound on life as they see it, they can get their own blog. It’s free. (However, comments are welcome if you want to email them.)

But back to NextGen. What’s a reporter to do ? I don’t know of any ex-controllers that have become reporters. There’s no way they can get up to speed on NextGen. Besides, it would be hard to get up to speed on something so ill defined -- and doesn’t even exist. So they quote what the FAA tells them, quote what the industry (the guys selling the hardware) tells them and -- if you’re lucky -- quote what NATCA tells them. There you go -- “Fair & Balanced”.

The quotes I started off with have nothing to do with NextGen or ATC. They’re from Paul Krugman’s blog and they are about health care. They echo a theme I noticed not long ago on James Fallows’ blog and have since heard from various sources. The health care debate seems to have made obvious that our current incarnation of “Freedom of the Press” is failing. Part of their job is supposed to be separating fact from fiction. The current setup presents fiction as a balance to the facts. And now you know one of the reasons I read Paul Krugman and James Fallows. (Their blogs have permanent links in the left margin.)

By the way, Professor Krugman does his usual excellent job in today’s New York Times editorial.

The facts are that NextGen is a bad idea. The efficiencies that are likely to be gained from it are not worth the investment. If and when any new runways are built, the current system has the capacity to deal with them. Atlanta and Chicago are proving that everyday. If you watch those airports long enough, you will see that demand will soon outstrip the large capacity increases a new runway provides -- increases that are far beyond any efficiency gains contemplated by NextGen.

ADS-B won’t replace radar. Yes, it will help the helicopter traffic in the Gulf of Mexico. But we’ll still need a radar system for national defense and ADS-B won’t do a thing for LGA. Do we want to implement it for the other advantages it can supply ? Perhaps. If we think it will be worth the money. The problem is that we’re using the promise of things it can’t deliver (curing airline delays) to justify the costs of the system. And that’s fiction.

Let me leave you with one last unoriginal thought. Perhaps -- just maybe -- the lack of government regulation and the Wild-West-Free-Market attitude of the last 30 years hasn’t been any better for the news industry than it has been for airlines, banks and the American worker.

Don Brown
August 31, 2009