Such Language

You see, it really doesn’t bother me when someone does a better job than me. It makes me try harder. So, I’m happy to have the competition. I like WWVB’s points better than my own. The title too.

HESSIANS AND WHORES, CONSULTANTS AND CONTRACTORS

It’s a little lengthy but it’s Sunday. You normal people have time to read it.

Don Brown
November 22, 2009

Lost in the Excitement

Two stories were lost in all the excitement of the FTI- inspired NADIN outage this week.

Lockheed announces FSS consolidations

”Beginning in February, Lockheed will close its locations in Columbia, Mo.; Honolulu, Hawaii; Kankakee, Ill.; Lansing, Mich.; Nashville, Tenn.; Seattle, Wash., and St. Petersburg, Fla.

This is the second consolidation effort since the company was awarded a contract in 2005 to provide flight services for the FAA. “

I’d love to quote some other source besides AOPA (AOPA supported this disaster) but the major media outlets totally ignored this news. Several local news outlets covered the story but it seems they lacked the knowledge necessary to challenge even the most outrageous statements by Lockheed.

”Corporate representative Jan Gottfredsen said the decision will affect 28 workers in Nashville and was made due to a 13 percent decrease in call volume to the flight services facilities. “

Call volume tends to decrease when you don’t answer the phone. Not to mention the inferior service tends to lose customers. (Remember, the following is from AOPA, the guys that supported contracting out this service to Lockheed.)

”June 6, 2007 — AOPA meets with DOT Inspector General Calvin Scovel and his staff office to once again detail member problems with the flight service station. For nearly two hours, AOPA laid out the problems with long hold times, dropped calls, lost flight plans, inexperienced briefers, and failure to supply critical information such as TFRs. AOPA also shared the results of a recent member AFSS survey. “

Moving on. The second story didn’t even make it into any media (as far as I can tell.) You can do your own search if you like. Search for ERAM -- En Route Automation Modernization. Of course, there may not be a story at all. It may have just been a coincidence that ERAM was being tested on the Wednesday night/Thursday morning mid shift and FTI brought down NADIN at 5 AM on Thursday morning.

Just because Salt Lake Center is where the ERAM installation is being tested doesn’t mean it has anything to do with the NADIN facility at Salt Lake failing. Seriously.

Yes, I am messing with the media. I don’t have any idea if one thing had anything to do with the other. But, even though I’m retired, I’m still plugged into the system enough to know I wasn’t the only one that wondered about it.

If ERAM has half the problems FTI has had, it will get really ugly. So far, things aren’t looking good. ERAM is enormously complex. Even with everybody fully committed to the program it would be one of the most difficult programs the FAA has ever undertaken.

But everyone isn’t on board. The last Administration -- Marion Blakey’s gang -- cut NATCA out of the program. I assume the current Administration is going to try and bring NATCA (and their member’s expertise) back on board. That will be interesting. I’m not sure which will be more difficult -- healing the damage Blakey inflicted on the controllers or making ERAM work. Too bad the FAA will have to do both. At the same time.

Don Brown
November 22, 2009

I’ll Second That

I’m just echoing James Fallows’ advice to go read this piece by Elliot Gerson.

From Oxford to Wall Street

”For more than a century Rhodes scholars have left Oxford with virtually any job available to them. For much of this time, they have overwhelmingly chosen paths in scholarship, teaching, writing, medicine, scientific research, law, the military and public service. They have reached the highest levels in virtually all fields.

In the 1980s, however, the pattern of career choices began to change.“

Don Brown
November 21, 2009

Not That Naive

I’ve always been too naive as far as I’m concerned. For instance, this story from the current issue of The Atlantic shocked me.

”The plan was to send (bank loan) officers to guest-speak at church-sponsored “wealth-building seminars” like the ones Bowler attended, and dazzle the participants with the possibility of a new house. They would tell pastors that for every person who took out a mortgage, $350 would be donated to the church, or to a charity of the parishioner’s choice. “They wouldn’t say, ‘Hey, Mr. Minister. We want to give your people a bunch of subprime loans,” Jacobson told me. “They would say, ‘Your congregants will be homeowners! They will be able to live the American dream!’” “

I don’t want to go down this particular rabbit hole (click here for those that do) but I want to demonstrate that I’m not the kind of guy that looks for the worst in people. I’ve heard of preachers preying on their flock, of course. I just never thought an industry that depends on trust would actively promote preachers preying on their flock. Yep, I’m naive. But not that naive.

Take a look at this strange story.

Cambodia confirms takeover of air traffic company

”The Cambodian government on Friday confirmed its temporary takeover of management of the country's air traffic control company after one of its Thai employees was arrested last week on a spying charge.“

”A CATS (Thai-owned Cambodia Traffic Air Services) employee, Siwarak Chutipong, was arrested last week for allegedly passing secret information about Thaksin's flight schedule to the Thai Embassy. Thaksin is a fugitive on a Thai corruption charge. “

I don’t know anything about the current situation in Cambodia or Thailand. I do know that a lot of sensitive information flows through an air traffic control system. And we’re not just talking national security or government. A lot of sensitive personal and business information goes through the system. Everything from guys cheating on their wives to multi-billion-dollar-business deals. The guys in the Tower with the binoculars can see the leggy blonde getting in the Bonanza. The Center guys know that MegaCorp’s jet has made several trips to the Middle-of-Nowhere, Georgia and today, Developers-R-Us followed them in there.

I’m happy to report to you that never -- not once -- in my 25 year career was I offered a bribe for information like this. I suspect it’s because a lot of people wouldn’t know to ask. But still, it’s nice to know that if there is any corruption like this, it isn’t obvious.

Show of hands: How many think this would be the case if a private company was running the air traffic control system ? (See the $350 dollar “donations” above.)

And make no mistake about it. The potential exists. But in government hands, there is a system of checks and balances. It works. Even if it is political. Remember this ?

”The Texas Department of Public Safety has destroyed all the records, but the feds have copies. And they have tapes. Lots of tapes. Together, the records and tapes could become the basis of a federal investigation into whether the speaker of the Texas House and the Majority Leader of the US House of Representatives illegally pulled strings in Washington to track down a single Piper Cheyenne for political - not national security - purposes. “.

Back then “...the Majority Leader of the US House of Representatives “ would have been none other than Tom (aka “The Hammer”) Delay. The way a mention of Tom Delay’s name stirs my heart is second only to a mention of Newt Gingrich’s name. Anybody remember the party with “Hookers and Blow” -- and a guest appearance by John Mica? Hey, didn’t we just hear Congressman Mica’s name ? Yeah...we did. Ahhhhh, the good-old-days when the Republican Party elite were corrupting our government, religion and finances all at the same time.

Don Brown
November 21, 2009

It’s Bad Enough

I know what people think. I know they think we just go out of our way to make these things look bad. Things at the FAA just can’t be as bad as we make them out to be. You can tell yourself that -- but it doesn’t change reality.

Reality check: I’m just an old, retired controller (still young to the real retired world.) I get paid nothing to do this. I don’t work for anybody or represent any organization. I don’t even have any ambitions. There’s no job I’m angling for -- no position. Even if there was, they couldn’t pay me whatever it would take to get me to move. (I’m told every man has his price but I haven’t found mine yet.) I’d be the first to tell them -- I’m not worth that much.

I do feel a sense of duty to my country. And I do feel an obligation to the people that send me a retirement check every month -- the U.S. taxpayers.

Without further ado, here’s what fell into my lap this morning.

The Story Behind the FAA Flight-Plan System Crash

”When the router went offline, only the system maintainer—government telecommunications contractor Harris—knew that the backup card was not immediately available, and that one technician, who hadn't come to work yet that day, had the key to the storage closet where the part was kept.

So the FAA had to wait until this technician was able to come to the site in Salt Lake City to replace the faulty card inside the router, reconfigure the software, and get the communications backbone back up and running so that the nation's air traffic could get back to normal. “

(Emphasis added)

Let me pause here to make sure everyone fully understands this. At this 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year safety-critical government facility -- a place that has the ability to all but shut down the nation’s entire aviation system -- the key to the spare parts closet is in the possession of a private contractor that isn’t even present at the facility.

It’s bad enough. I can’t make that look any worse than it is.

”Before 2002, when the FAA contracted out the FTI system to Harris, the system was maintained by FAA telecom technicians on duty 24 hours per day.“

In other words, before 2002, this problem (if it had occurred at all) would have been fixed in minutes (instead of 4 hours) by the technicians that staffed the facility 24/7/365. And the key to the parts locker would have been at the facility instead of roaming around the countryside.

Okay, now it’s time to delve into the inside baseball. For a system that is so critical, where is the system redundancy ? There are two facilities (Salt Lake and Atlanta/Hampton) to handle the load. The design is for them to back each other up. One facility can handle the entire load should the other fail. What happened ?

”The FAA utilizes the NADIN (National Airspace Data Interchange Network) communications link for the flight-plan system. The two NADIN sites in Salt Lake City and Hampton, Ga.—along with including the 21 other FAA IT stations—no longer use a multipath communications backbone composed of many different redundant links.

As mandated by the Bush administration in 2001, all the communications links that previously were government-owned and maintained by FAA employees were contracted to Harris, under the $2.4 billion FTI contract. “

I’ll repeat myself -- It’s bad enough. I can’t make that look any worse than it is.

”...no longer use a multipath communications backbone composed of many different redundant links.“

We (and I do mean we) told you so.

Don Brown
November 21, 2009

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Broken Pieces of the Puzzle

I bet you came here today looking for an explanation of what went wrong yesterday. You’re going to get more than you bargained for.

First, the FAA’s statement:

”The failure was attributed to a software configuration problem within the FAA Telecommunications Infrastructure (FTI) in Salt Lake City.  As a result FAA services used primarily for traffic flow and flight planning were unavailable electronically. 

The National Airspace Data Interchange Network (NADIN), which processes flight planning, was affected because it relies on the FTI services.  During the outage air traffic controllers managed flight plan data manually and safely according to FAA contingency plans.“

I hope you heeded my previous advice.

”Speaking of radar outages, here are three letters for you to remember -- FTI. When the next major ATC outage occurs, those are the three letters to listen for -- FTI. It stands for Federal Telecommunications Infrastructure. “

In that same blog entry, I tell you to listen to PASS (Professional Aviation Safety Specialists, AFL-CIO). Is it live ot is it Memorex ?

”Despite a rosy picture painted Tuesday by the Federal Aviation Administration, the FAA Telecommunications Infrastructure (FTI) network is unreliable, lacking suitable backups, and continues to be a source of great frustration and deep concern for the FAA technicians and air traffic controllers who must deal with the fallout of the FAA’s decision to cut corners and costs on this project and run it on the razor’s edge despite a lengthy list of failures and outages.“

It’s Memorex. That wasn’t from yesterday, it was from April, 2008.

Here’s the PASS press release from yesterday.

”The Professional Aviation Safety Specialists, AFL-CIO (PASS), the union that represents Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) technicians, is extremely concerned about the resolution process in reaction to today's outage of the Federal Telecommunications Infrastructure (FTI). The outage occurred due to a corrupt router card for the FTI server at the Salt Lake Center in Utah and had a rippling effect that caused significant delays across the country.

FTI, which provides all telecommunications used to transfer critical data used by the FAA for air traffic control, is owned by Harris Corporation. As such, the system is not maintained by the FAA. When the outage occurred at the Salt Lake Center, Harris Corporation attempted to troubleshoot the problem remotely but eventually a Harris FTI technician had to be dispatched to the scene in order to fix the problem. In the end, it took four hours for Harris to rectify the situation. “

(Emphasis added)

Please, I’m begging you. If you have the time, read the whole press release -- critically. It just keeps getting better and better (or worse and worse). Look for 4 letters -- ADS-B.

Here’s another piece for the technical aspects from Computerworld.

Okay, to sum it up. FTI corrupts a router at the Salt Lake NADIN facility that handles flight plans. FTI is a bad program from the start. NADIN is just old. The NADIN facility in Atlanta is supposed to back up the NADIN facility in Salt Lake. But to do that, FTI has to work. I haven’t seen an explanation of that missing link (literally) yet. But that is what FTI -- Federal Telecommunications Infrastructure -- does. It provides data communications. Without communications between the two NADIN facilities, the whole system breaks down.

FTI is run by Harris Corporation. You might remember they are wrapped up with our old friend Congressman John Mica. In other words, we told you so. At least as far back as 2007.

”“Despite the known safety-related problems directly attributed to the FTI program, Congressman John Mica was adamant then that the program should continue.” “

”This is such a “target-rich environment” I hardly know where to start. Seriously, you could spend all day just reading the links I found it ten minutes and you don’t have to take my word for it. Go to Google and type in “+FAA +FTI” (or just click on the link) and you can read all day. “

Make that two days now. And we haven’t even scratched the surface. It’s all connected. The politics, contracting out, lack of manpower, nonexistent redundancy, inadequate training and on and on and on. It isn’t just one piece of the puzzle that is broken. It’s a lot of pieces.

If you think the “I told you so”s are uncomfortable now...wait until somebody dies. In case you haven’t figure it out, that is how this all ends. That’s how it always ends. Somebody dies and we fix it. It doesn’t have to be that way. But that is the way it always is.

Don Brown
November 20, 2009

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It’s NADIN

It’s NADIN. Again.

Don Brown
November 19, 2009

Final Warning

If you keep up with Paul Krugman’s blog, you’ve probably seen him quote Brad Delong. Just in case you didn’t click on the link he provided Wednesday, you might want to go back and look again.

From Krugman:

”Brad DeLong says that the loss of public trust due to the kid-gloves treatment of bankers has raised the probability of another Great Depression, because the public won’t support another round of bailouts even if it becomes desperately necessary. I agree — but I think the bigger cost is that we’ve greatly increased the chance of a Japanese-style lost decade, with I would now give roughly even odds of happening. Why? Because bank-friendly policies have squandered public trust in all government action: try talking to the general public about stimulus, and it’s all confounded in their minds with the deeply unpopular bailouts. “

From DeLong:

”For 2 1/4 years now I have been saying that there is no chance of a repeat of the Great Depression or anything like it--that we know what to do and how to do it and will do it if things turn south.

I don't think I can say that anymore. In my estimation the chances of another big downward shock to the U.S. economy--a shock that would carry us from the 1/3-of-a-Great-Depression we have now to 2/3 or more--are about 5%. And it now looks very much as if if such a shock hits the U.S. government will be unable to do a d----- thing about it. “

It keeps getting more interesting from there. This may well be your final warning on the subject. We humans rarely control events. We are usually controlled by them. When you start thinking about what kind of “shock” could hit us -- or the world -- it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see how precarious our position is.

And it is mostly political. I’ll be honest. I can’t fathom it. I can’t understand how people can be so politically and financially blind to reality. America placed an enormous bet on finance as the economic engine instead of manufacturing. At the same time, we began a political reeducation that Wall Street wasn’t the villain that robbed our grandparents and created the Great Depression -- Wall Street was the way forward to the future. The road was going to be paved with 401k’s made of gold. Free markets = the Promised Land. (The religious imagery is intentional. I don’t believe any of this would have been possible without the support of the Religious Right.)

We are now stuck with a political stalemate. Half the country thinks I (and people like me) am the one that is politically and financially blind. And they are just as convinced of my blindness as I am of theirs. But as they said during the Bush years, “Elections have consequences”.

While I can’t grasp President Obama’s political strategy, I can see the consequences. I see his political opponents falling apart. Everyone thought the tea-bag guys had rocked the world this summer. There was lots of hand wringing. Reality ? The House passed a health care Bill. All were aghast that President Obama “declared war” on Fox News. Reality ? Yawn. And the latest ? Bowing in Japan. Vice-President Joe Biden appeared on The Daily Show this week. When he walked out, he and Jon Stewart bowed to each other. It was hilarious because the Republican right wing (the wing nuts that were running the country a year ago) has become a joke.

I see this and I recognize that the political strategy is working. Still, I sense danger. I feel that time is short. Perhaps my perspective is tainted by my being in the heartland of the hard cases -- here in the South.

Most of the people in America are too busy trying to keep their heads above water to pay attention to all these forces at play. Not to mention, it’s amazing how little of it you see on “normal” TV. They’re too busy covering whether to bow or not to bow in a country where everybody bows to each other. They don’t have time to explain that the financial industry took in 41% of the country’s domestic corporate profits -- much less what it means. (Why invest in a car-making plant when you can make more money by financing loans to buy cars ? Because it keeps you from becoming a banana republic.)

I’m not sure President Obama has time to win over the hearts and minds of the electorate with calm, educational speeches, a desire for bipartisanship and results. He may have to be a little more blunt. He might have to use a line like the one I read in Bad Money (by Kevin Phillips) last night, where Harry Truman called Republicans, “bloodsuckers with offices in Wall Street”. People down here understand blunt. For a lot of people, that is all they understand.

It might be time to turn the light saber on. (If you’re unfamiliar with that line, you’ll have to watch this video.)

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
David Plouffe
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Don Brown
November 19, 2009

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Laugh of the Day

I was watching The Daily Show last night. It’s the funniest thing I’ve seen all week. You don’t have to watch the whole thing. The first minute cracked me up.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Lou Dobbs
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Don Brown
November 19, 2009

Hollowed Out

I remember back well before I retired, a friend of mine was on a detail at FAA Headquarters in Washington. She was amazed at the number of contractors there and went so far as to say, “There are more contractor badges there than government badges.” In other words, the contractors outnumbered the government employees inside a government agency’s headquarters.

Immediately, you recognize that there is something wrong with that, don’t you ? Still, it’s hard to verbalize it, to think it through and to name it. See if this video helps. And remember Marion Blakey -- the ex-FAA Administrator now working for an industry group -- while you’re listening.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Don Brown
November 18, 2009

WWVB -- Colbert on Rand

You’ve got to see it. WWVB posted the perfect video for the Robert Poole/Ayn Rand lovefest. It’s Stephen Colbert doing a “The Word” segment on Ayn Rand.

CONSIGNING AYN RAND TO THE DUSTBIN OF HISTORY

In “The Word” segment, look for the comment about actually making it through the book (Atlas Shrugged). I had to give that an “Amen !”. I made it through about 800 pages before I decided I just couldn’t take it anymore. And I’m the guy that read 3,000+ pages about LBJ.

Don Brown
November 16, 2009

Where’s the Hate ?

I just finished reading an opinion piece in the Washington Post. Something must be wrong. It made sense, it included Republicans, acting on a bipartisan measure, honoring a Republican and it wasn’t hateful at all. Can this really be Washington ?

Yes. It can.

ROTC for civilian service

”But inspiration is not enough. The military, after all, does not rely solely on patriotic feelings to build its force, and neither should the civilian parts of government. One of the most powerful incentives the military has is the Reserve Officers' Training Corps, which offers assistance to those seeking higher education. It's time for a civilian ROTC.

That's the idea of a bipartisan group of senators and House members, who are proposing to create a Roosevelt Scholars program, named after Teddy Roosevelt. Reps. David Price (D-N.C.) and Mike Castle (R-Del.) have introduced a bill in the House, and a similar measure is expected in the Senate this week from Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and George Voinovich (R-Ohio). “

Sign me up. What a breath of fresh air. The rest of the article is well worth reading.

Don Brown
November 16, 2009

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Welcome Aboard Comrade

They are wearing me down. I’m not sure I can treat these people seriously anymore. Perhaps I never should have. I’m sorry, but I can’t call this Wal-Street Journal headline even slightly better than propaganda. It’s just out and out propaganda.

Airlines Fight for Safety-Upgrade Funds

There’s no safety issue here (or in this story.) Marion Blakey can’t call this the safest period in aviation history as FAA Administrator and then turn around and ask for a handout on safety grounds as an industry shill. (Notice I don’t need two separate links to prove that statement. It’s available in one link. See what I mean about propaganda ?) Even reading the story, you can’t find the word “safety” until almost the end.

”The debate comes months after aviation industry officials failed to have air-traffic control issues included in sweeping federal economic-stimulus legislation. Since then, the industry coalition has sent letters to Capitol Hill, talked with Mr. Summers and enlisted the support of the FAA. It has argued that such assistance would produce tangible, near-term efficiency and safety benefits, long before the FAA's tentative 2018 deadline for widespread deployment. “

Even when safety is finally mentioned, it’s in the “and” category. They can’t say NextGen (that’s what we’re talking about here) will improve safety (because it won’t) so they toss in an “and” to include “efficiency”. I don’t know why. It doesn’t really help. The FAA and the airlines already used the saving-gas-on-direct-routes lie with URET. They “saved” themselves right into bankruptcy.

And then, at the very last, there is this “Hail Mary” pass on safety.

”David Traynham, another Boeing official, told an FAA safety conference in September: "We need to broaden our thinking about what constitutes" air-traffic control systems. "A lot of the [future] infrastructure," he said, "is going to be equipment in cockpits." “

I’m not sure that I can “broaden” my mind that much -- without it exploding. How am I supposed to consider an over-priced and under-needed black box in a private airliner as part of the publicly-funded air traffic control system ? And in case you’re confused, that is what all this is about.

The airlines want the Federal government to pay for the NextGen-required navigational equipment on their airplanes. They can’t afford to pay for it so they want you to buy it for them.

US Airways to U.S.: We can’t afford new traffic control

It’s more Lemon Socialism. Only worse. Even if NexGen paid off (and it won’t), the carnival barkers trying to sell you on this idea wouldn’t share the wealth with their workers. They’ll take their slightly-smaller-than-Wall-Street’s bonuses, pull the rip cord on their golden parachutes and leave the pilots, flight attendants and mechanics with nothing. No salaries, no jobs, no prospects and no pensions.

In case it hasn’t occurred to you, the biggest safety problem in aviation right now is the fatigued (not to mention demoralized) workers in the industry. You know, the pilots that commute all the way across the country because they can’t afford to move. The crazy hours. Falling asleep at the wheel. That kind of thing. If you -- the taxpayer -- want to spend some money on safety, you’d do a lot better by spending it on the people that are supposed to keep you safe.

Don Brown
November 16, 2009

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Happy to Help

When I stumbled upon a video of Robert Poole idolizing Ayn Rand, I knew just the man to send it to. But, in my humble opinion, I think WWVB should have linked to the explanation of “The Overton Window” at his own blog.

There aren’t many blogs (that I’m aware of anyway) where you’ll see Richard Bach, Whittaker Chambers and Cougars in one post. By the way, I loved the review of Ayn Rand’s works by Whittaker Chambers. The younger readers might want to read up on Mr. Chambers.

The world isn’t black and white. It’s complicated. It’s messy. You spend the first 12 years of school learning a simplistic view of history. You’ll spend a lifetime unlearning it.

Don Brown
November 16, 2009

Zombie Story

The story that just...will...not...die.

Controllers Were Slow to Notify Defense Command of Errant Jet

”Air traffic control supervisors delayed nearly an hour in notifying Norad, the military air defense command, that a Northwest Airlines jetliner was not responding to radio calls, the head of the Federal Aviation Administration said Friday.“

I really wonder, in 2-3 months when the investigation is over, will the story gain any attention then ? When it counts ? I bet not.

Even Mr. Wald’s (the reporter of the story) attempt to explain the unexplainable sounds weak.

”The incident did not result in any damage or injury. But in a period of worry over distracted driving, it has attracted widespread public attention.“

Whatever. When the report comes out and we are reminded (again) that we don’t have an effective system for passing critical information like the fact an aircraft is NORDO -- everybody will yawn and the editors will give it a pass. Until we put two of them together that is. Everybody will care then.

It’s the age-old curse of the safety people. Nobody cares until it is too late. Or, as I used to say, it’s never a problem until it’s a problem. And then it’s really a problem.

CHI99IA100A

”The aircraft came within an estimated 1/2 mile horizontal and 0 feet vertical separation ... “

”ATC recognized that both airplanes were NORDO but were unable to reestablish radio....“

”...neither airplane was equipped with TCAS.“

Just a half mile and it could have really been a problem. A problem that we would have solved. For those that don’t know, the NTSB used this incident to push for the installment of TCAS on freighters. They -- not without cause -- thought it would add in another safety layer to the system. And in a way, it did. But TCAS isn’t perfect. The problem with NORDO is growing and the solution is found where the problem starts -- at the controller’s position.

I hate quoting myself but....

”No person, no machine -- no system -- is infallible. All of them have limitations. You can't continuously push a machine past it's limits and not expect it to fail. You can't give people an unusual amount of tasks to accomplish on a regular basis and not expect them to fail. We can't make an unlimited number of errors -- even small ones -- and not expect the system to fail. The FAA, in the training video, notes 11 separate "links" (or errors) in the chain of events. Each error was what we tend to think of as a "small" error. But as the magnitude of this event sinks in you realize that there isn't any such thing as a "small" error in this business.“

If we allow the number of NORDOs to increase -- or even remain the same -- without developing a better way of handling and reacting to the information, the system will fail.

Don Brown
November 14, 2009

Speaking of Krugman

A very short and succinct blog from Paul Krugman, clarifying what I was trying to convey yesterday.

It’s the stupidity economy

”The first-best answer — that is, the answer that economic models, like my old Japan’s trap analysis, suggest would be optimal — would be to credibly commit to higher inflation, so as to reduce real interest rates.“

”The second-best answer would be a really big fiscal expansion, sufficient to mostly close the output gap. “

”That’s why, at this point, I’m turning to what I understand perfectly well to be a third-best solution: subsidizing jobs and promoting work-sharing. “

Read the blog to fill in the gaps.

Don Brown
November 14, 2009