Just One of Those Things

I was on Wikipedia looking up a type aircraft I’d never heard of and stumbled across this:

”The aircraft did not take part in any true wars during its career with the Fleet Air Arm though it took part in many operations. In 1961, President Abdul Karim Kassem of Iraq threatened to annex the neighbouring oil-rich state of Kuwait. Kuwait appealed for external help. The United Kingdom dispatched a number of ships, including two fleet carriers to the region. Sea Vixens aboard the fleet carriers flew patrols in the region. Kassem's aggressive actions soon wilted in the face of such overwhelming naval might, thus averting a Gulf War over Kuwait.“

Don Brown
February 29, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 29

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...


”Feb 29, 1972: Following a nationwide election, the National Association of Air Traffic Specialists (NAATS) received Department of Labor certification as the national exclusive representative for all Flight Service Station specialists, some 3,000 employees. On Jun 1, 1972, FAA and NAATS concluded an agencywide collective bargaining agreement, the first such contract between FAA and a national labor organization and the first in a series of FAA/NAATS contracts.“

In case you weren’t paying attention these last few years, NAATS was a union that represented the Flight Service Specialists. FSS was contracted out to Lockheed Martin after a study done by a group called Grant Thornton said that some of the work they did could be contracted out.

In addition, you may remember that the vast majority of NAATS members lost their ATC retirement benefits when they were contracted out. It’s a complicated story but this pretty well sums it up:

” Breen — who was 44 years old and had 15 years of federal service when her job was outsourced — was six years short of being eligible for an air traffic controller’s pension of about $35,000 a year. If she doesn’t find a federal job before she retires, the best she can hope for is $3,000 a year. “

Ms. Breen was the president of NAATS.

In case you’ve forgotten, there’s an air traffic controller shortage -- a shortage that was plain to see coming -- less than 3 years after these folks lost their jobs. To put the icing on this crummy cake -- according to the latest survey at AVweb, 91% of the respondents have a negative impression of FSS run by Lockheed. Everyone who reads them knows that AVweb’s survey aren’t scientific. Still, when 28% of the respondents agree with the statement -- “It was much better when the FAA ran it, but I can still use it.” -- you’ve got to wonder about that “business is better” philosophy.

Don Brown
February 29, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 28

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 28, 1995: At Denver International Airport’s opening day, air traffic controllers at the state-of-the-art facility cleared three aircraft to make the world’s first triple simultaneous landing. By this date, FAA had provided Airport Improvement Program grants totaling $267.6 million for the project, and had committed over $200 million more in Letters of Intent. In a February 1996 report on the airport’s first 11 months in operation, FAA stated that the facility had achieved a flight delay rate five times less than the airport it replaced, Stapleton International. (See May 17, 1988.) “

If you want to know how to reduce airline delays, this is how. Build more runways and put them far enough apart so that you can use them in bad weather. Wikipedia has excellent write-up about the current DIA airport and it’s predecessor -- Stapleton.

If you don’t have 52 square miles and $5 billion dollars (that’s 1995 dollars) laying around, you’ll need to consider slot restrictions instead.

Don Brown
February 28, 2008

English-Irish American

Check out this short news story (be sure to look at the pictures) from across the pond. You’ve got to love the English.

”One of the banners hanging down the side of the building read "NO THIRD RUNWAY".”

Think about that for a moment if you will. They don’t want a third runway at their busiest airport -- Heathrow. Atlanta has five parallel runways and I’m sure the sixth is on somebody’s drawing board, somewhere. Of course, the situation in the Northeast proves that we’re not that much different.

There’s another area where there are considerable differences though.

Air traffic controllers consider deal

I can’t speak with any authority on the situation -- I only know what I read about it when it shows up in my news selections. But here is my impression.

The Irish controllers perceived that they were being used and abused. The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) has failed to hire enough air traffic controllers (like half the world’s ATC system providers, seemingly) and the controllers were paying the price for the IAA’s mistake. The controllers were being scheduled an excessive amount of overtime to make up for the shortfall. Once the controllers figured it out, they said "enough." And evidently, their laws allow them the right to say “No.”

Furthermore, the controllers said “fix it” or they would go on strike. Management wouldn’t agree and so it went to court. (What a novel idea.)

”The Labour Court has recommended that an interim overtime system should be put in place for air traffic controllers for the next 18 months until additional newly recruited staff become fully operational.

Under the proposals, air traffic controllers would receive an allowance of €4,000 a year for making themselves available to do overtime on a voluntary basis.

Labour Court chairman Kevin Duffy recommended that participating air traffic controllers should make themselves available to be called in on overtime on 12 days per year but that they would not actually be called into work more than eight times.

He also proposed that an overtime rate of double time should apply and that staff should be paid for a minimum of five hours at overtime rates if they were called in to work.“

I’m sure the Irish controllers will look over the deal for themselves but I look at it in comparison to the controller’s situation in America. American controllers can decline an offer of overtime but can’t refuse an order to work it. If they don’t like it, the only court they can appeal to is the court of public opinion.

The Irish Labour Court recommended an interim plan. The IAA gets 18 months to hire some controllers and they pay the price for their own mistakes -- 4,000 euros to get controllers to volunteer for overtime. And this is the part I really like -- available for overtime 12 times a year but not to actually work it but 8 times a year. For double time instead of time and one half like American controllers.

Let’s add all that up shall we ? The Irish get a bonus. The Americans get nothing. The Irish work no more that 8 shifts of overtime. The Americans work no more that 48-50-52 ? The Irish get double time. The Americans don’t.

But here’s the best part. The Irish controllers get a chance at a fair deal. And the Irish people get the situation resolved in a reasonable amount of time. The Americans ? They’ve got nothing.

With the proper checks and balances, the Irish appear to be on the road to resolving their problem. The Americans on the other hand, have been at odds for over 542 days (just for irony’s sake, that’s right at 18 months) with no end in sight. As a matter of fact, the only thing that is in sight for America is a train wreck -- or a plane wreck.

Don Brown
February 27, 2008

Wake Up Call

I woke up this morning to the sound of thunder. It’s that time of year in Georgia. Warm, delicious days followed by thunderstorms proceeding the cold front that brings back the frost. Once we kick the temperature up a few more degrees we’ll be looking for tornados.

Anyway, I (of course) went to the computer to download the latest radar information. Only this time, I was using my wife’s laptop because mine is in the shop (just a broken hinge.) Because I didn’t have my usual preferences bookmarked, the web site brought up the “Base Reflectivity” radar data.

If you don’t know what “Base Reflectivity” is -- you’re the reason I’m writing this entry. Here is what a “Base Reflectivity” image looks like.



Here is what a “Composite Image” looks like.



The images were taken at the same time -- it’s the same storm front. Do you see how different they look ? That difference can get you killed.

If you fly or if you’re a controller, educate yourself about this system. It’s a great system but what you don’t know can hurt you. Go to the National Weather Service’s tutorial about weather radar. Go read one of my articles about NEXRAD. If you’re a controller you can read about your system on this blog. (Nobody says pilots can’t read it too.) If you own a NEXRAD device for your airplane, find out if it displays a composite or base reflectivity image.

As I’ve tried to point out in so many ways, all the technology in the world doesn’t do us any good if we don’t have people that understand it, interpret it and use it safely.

The facts are that we have the best weather radar data we’ve ever had in the National Airspace System. Yet we have more thunderstorm-related accidents than ever. Our technology isn’t saving us, it’s killing us. Until we learn to approach the human factors side of the system with the same zeal with which we pursue the technical side, don’t expect that to change.

Don Brown
February 26, 2008

Defining Emergency

Here’s a story that might make it into the mainstream Press.

Did FAA brush off 'mayday' call from doomed pilot?

First, let’s look at the facts as we know them. A pilot was having an emergency and his flight was being handled by a Flight Service Station. The FAA has an emergency radio frequency -- often referred to as Guard -- which is monitored by every FAA facility in the country and numerous other entities. This frequency is normally routed through a loudspeaker in the facility so that everyone can hear it. The simple idea is that, if you need help, all you have to do is call on this one frequency and somebody, somewhere, will hear you and provide assistance. Think of it as the 911 system for airplanes.

In this case, it appears a supervisor -- perhaps with good intentions -- turned down the volume on the Guard frequency loudspeaker to a point that controllers couldn’t hear it. I want to make this point clear. I understand the rationale it appears the supervisor was using. A blaring speaker isn’t conducive to the type of operation air traffic controllers run. Controllers can indeed become distracted. The supervisors actions were most likely rational. They were also wrong.

Let’s take a look at some of the rules for air traffic control. The quoted sections are from FAA Order 7110.65 -- also known as the controller’s bible.

====================

2-1-2. DUTY PRIORITY

a. Give first priority to separating aircraft and issuing safety alerts as required in this order. Good judgment shall be used in prioritizing all other provisions of this order based on the requirements of the situation at hand.
REFERENCE- FAAO JO 7110.65, Para 2-1-6, Safety Alert.

NOTE-
Because there are many variables involved, it is virtually impossible to develop a standard list of duty priorities that would apply uniformly to every conceivable situation. Each set of circumstances must be evaluated on its own merit, and when more than one action is required, controllers shall exercise their best judgment based on the facts and circumstances known to them. That action which is most critical from a safety standpoint is performed first.

=======================

There are two pertinent parts n that section. A controller’s first priority is to “separate aircraft and issue safety alerts” -- even if he’s working an emergency. Notice the phrase “good judgment.” You see it again in the “note” -- “best judgment.” It is vital that you understand this if you ever want to understand the responsibilities of air traffic controllers. Controllers may have to juggle more events than it is humanly possible to handle. They don’t get to quit. They are expected to use their “best judgment” and keep going no matter what.

======================

2-1-4. OPERATIONAL PRIORITY

Provide air traffic control service to aircraft on a "first come, first served" basis as circumstances permit, except the following:

a. An aircraft in distress has the right of way over all other air traffic

c. Provide maximum assistance to SAR aircraft performing a SAR mission.

======================

An SAR aircraft is a “Search And Rescue” aircraft. In another version of this same story, on AVweb, you’ll see this.

”But FAA spokesman Ian Gregor told AVweb in an e-mail that by the time the controllers in Oakland had tuned in, the plane had already crashed and all they heard were transmissions from another pilot who saw the crash and was circling the wreck waiting for help to arrive. “

The aircraft “circling the wreck” is a SAR aircraft. There’s nothing special about it. It was probably just another pilot that happened to be flying in the area. Obviously he wouldn’t have the “rescue” portion of SAR but he was definitely involved in the “search.” It’s hard to render “maximum assistance” when you’re not listening to the conversation.

I could go on with this listing of the rules...

================

2-4-2. MONITORING

Monitor interphones and assigned radio frequencies continuously.

=================

...but I don’t believe there is any need to belabor the point. From what I can gain out of the media reports, the supervisor failed to exercise the best judgment in this situation. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that there could have been another emergency while the frequency was turned down.

If relations between controllers and management were remotely tolerable, this incident would probably never have seen the light of day. In the controller’s eyes, this is a serious transgression. Controllers have to know who they can trust when the chips are down. You don’t get to make too many bad calls in a profession where “good judgment” is all important. The transgression would have been noted and brought to the attention of FAA management for them to handle.

Therein lies the point. Controllers don’t trust the FAA to “do the right thing” anymore. They’ve seen the trust they are supposed to have abused and violated too many times to recount. Relations aren’t normal between controllers and management. Relations are the worst that they have been since the PATCO strike in 1981 and possibly even worse than they were then. Controllers don’t trust FAA management, they don’t trust the Administrator, the Secretary of Transportation or the President.

That fact has an impact on everything. Including your safety.

Don Brown
February 25, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 23

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 23, 1956: The Civil Aeronautics Board, noting the increasing frequency of near-collisions in the air and wishing to gain more information about such incidents, adopted Special Civil Air Regulation No. SR- 416, which granted immunity from disciplinary proceedings to pilots reporting near misses. The identity of the pilot or other person making the report would be held in confidence by the Board. In cases where information about a violation of Civil Air Regulations was obtained by other means, however, the fact that the violation was voluntarily reported would not preclude enforcement, disciplinary, or remedial proceedings on the basis of such other information. In an attempt to gather information on near misses, some airlines had previously started their own anonymous reporting programs, but that effort had failed because pilots feared possible Federal disciplinary action. The CAB grant of immunity was intended to overcome this problem. (See Jul 10, 1959.) “

First, if you don’t know about NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System you need to familiarize yourself with it.

Second, if you haven’t read about the judge’s ruling in the ASAP program (a program similar to NASA’s ASRS) then you need to.


Don Brown
February 23, 2008

Fireman

When I was in college, taking a business administration class, I distinctly remember the professor mentioning the “firefighting school of management.” Most of us have worked for an outfit that subscribed to that school of management thought. You know the ones, they go from putting out one fire to the next fire and never seem to have time to prevent the fires.

George W. Bush went to a different school than I did. He learned a different trick somewhere along the line. Instead of putting out fires he lights them. Here’s a thought for you to keep in mind as you read the article I’m about to mention and for others you might read in the future.

It’s really hard to get anything done -- and it’s very expensive -- when you’re busy fighting fires that somebody else set. That goes for government agencies as well as unions.

Go read “ Fighting Fire With the Wrong Sector?” by Stephen Barr of The Washington Post.

”The Government Accountability Office faulted outsourcing projects at the Forest Service in a report released yesterday, prompting renewed calls for more scrutiny of the Bush administration's effort to contract out federal jobs, a plan known as competitive sourcing. “

Don Brown
February 22, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 22

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 22, 1974: At Baltimore-Washington International Airport, a former mental patient killed two persons and seriously wounded another in an attempt to hijack a DC-9 and crash it into the White House. The gunman committed suicide when wounded by a policeman.
“

I confess that I don’t remember this one. But after reading this article, I now know why.

”Feb 22, 1996: Confirming its intent to address staffing needs at key facilities, FAA announced that it planned to hire 100 more air traffic controllers during 1996, and that the Clinton Administration would
request funding for hundreds more during 1997 (see Sep 30, 1996). The agency pledged to give fair consideration to former strikers (see Aug 12, 1993). “

It’s usually forgotten now -- in the current crisis we face. Air traffic control has been chronically understaffed. For years and years. When I was working, we could get annual leave -- vacation time we had bid on a year in advance -- but you couldn’t get spot leave. Let’s say someone gave you a pair of tickets to the ball game a week from now. There wasn’t a chance to get off. If your sister was going to get married in three months -- there still wasn’t a chance of getting spot leave. It had been so long since the FAA had approved any spot leave, I literally forgot how to put in for it.

Instead, you had to swap days off with another controller, work credit hours or some other scheme to game the system. And trust me, we had some experts in gaming the system. What we didn’t have were enough controllers to assure you could lead some semblance of a normal life (even if your “weekend was Tuesday and Wednesday) by getting a day off to attend those moments that make a good life.

Don Brown
February 22, 2008

Your Future Awaits

America might want to pay attention. This is what your future could look like.

”A Senate estimates committee today heard details of air traffic control towers left understaffed and at times unstaffed because of sickness and a lack of controllers.”

No, this isn’t one of my history lessons. This is happening right now -- today -- in Australia.

SEVERE shortages of air traffic controllers are causing major headaches for Airservices Australia.

This will be the next step.

Air traffic controllers to stage 24-hour strikes

“Around 60,000 passengers are set  to be affected next week by the cancellation of flights in and out of the State's main airports due to a 24-hour strike announced this morning by air traffic controllers.”

Again, this isn’t some history lesson. This is happening right now -- in Ireland. If things get this bad in the U.S. it won’t be 60,000 passengers -- it will be 600,000+. If memory serves me correctly, in the U.S., we have well over a million passengers a day that fly -- and close to 2 million per day on the major holidays.

As I tried to make clear just a few days ago, the FAA is bleeding controllers faster than the infusion of trainees can be trained. If the President, Congress, somebody doesn’t do something to stop the bleeding -- and do it fast -- the best thing that will happen will be closing a few air traffic control Towers. You don’t want to think about the worst thing that can happen.

Don Brown
February 20, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 20

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 20, 1956: CAA and the Air Force announced a joint study under Air Navigation Development Board auspices to evaluate the use of Air Defense Command (ADC) radar for civil air traffic control purposes. The evaluation included use of a microwave link to remote radar information between an ADC installation at Rockville, Ind., and the CAA ARTCC at Indianapolis, a distance of some 50 miles. This was the first use of a microwave link to transfer radar information between distant points for air traffic control. (See Nov 16, 1956.) “

I don’t know what I can say about all this. Most people couldn’t understand how I could work the airspace near Charlotte, NC -- from Atlanta, GA -- in 1986, much less in 1956. The FAA is full of technical wizards. I talked to a few on a regular basis back when I was a safety rep. They always made me feel dumb. They were always helpful and kind but if they ever got into technical details they would quickly leave me behind. It’s a good thing they were on our side.

Don Brown
February 20, 2008

Communicating for Safety ‘08

Just in case you forgot, the yearly Communicating for Safety conference is rapidly approaching. I’ll be there. I hope you will be too.

Communicating For Safety
Chicago, Illinois
March 31 - April 2, 2008
Crowne Plaza Chicago - O'Hare

Here is the complete schedule and below is one segment:

Industry Leaders Panel
Congestion – Solving Gridlock Today

Pat Forrey – President, NATCA
Capt. John Prater – President, ALPA
Robert A. Sturgell – Acting FAA Administrator**
James C. May – President & CEO, ATA
Edward Bolen – President & CEO, NBAA
Phil Boyer – President, AOPA

That panel alone will be worth every penny. I hope to see you there.

Don Brown
February 19, 2008

Gray Eagles

There really isn’t anything I need to say. Click on the link and watch the video. Oh yeah, and grab a tissue.

Gray Eagles Foundation

Don Brown
February 19, 2008

Thinking and TV

Question: Can you think while watching TV ? Ever since I read Al Gore’s book, An Inconvenient Truth -- including the part on the mental processes while watching TV -- I’ve begun to wonder.

The TV stays on a lot at my house. I won’t make any comment about it. I’ll just state the fact. In that it’s on so much, various and assorted things wind up on the TV that I don’t necessarily watch. Like Lou Dobbs. Now, I’m not really watching mind you -- I’m actually helping prepare dinner -- but it appears Mr. Dobbs is upset about various and assorted things. Recalled beef, unsafe toys and incompetent Federal managers. Yet, two minutes before, he -- like the national news I’d watched just minutes before -- got into the Hillary/Obama war of words.

I’ve watched Mr. Dobbs before. He’s a reasonably intelligent man -- whether you agree with him or not. But, like I said, it makes me wonder. Why didn’t Mr. Dobbs take the five minutes spent on the Hillary/Obama war of words, which is -- let’s face it -- fluff, and instead examine Ms. Clinton’s record on beef inspection ? Or Mr. Obama’s stance on consumer safety ? Or Mr. McCain’s record on government oversight ?

This isn’t really hard to figure out is it ? I use my “FAA History Lessons” as a mechanism to spur my thoughts about current policy for the FAA. Wouldn’t you think somebody in the media would use current events to explore the views of Presidential candidates by looking at their history ? Let’s “stick with what we know” -- aviation.

Do you know what the policies of any of the Presidential candidates are concerning aviation ? Or transportation in general ? I’ve looked for position papers. There might be some out there but I haven’t found any. If you stick a microphone in a candidate’s face and ask, they will just hem-and-haw around the issue. But they all have a record. What is their record on aviation issues ? Do you know ?

Safe food, safe toys, government oversight, safe transportation --these are things that matter. And they are things that Presidents have influence over. Why doesn’t the news media cover these things ? Could it be because of a failed public policy in the use of the public airwaves ? Not airways but airwaves -- radio and TV broadcast frequencies. The President has influence over that too.

The President appoints the commissioners of the FCC. He appoints Federal judges that rule on controversial cases. The President even nominates the Administrator of the FAA. The Senate gets to approve. Or not. Senators have records. And three of them are running for President.

Back over to you Lou.

Don Brown
February 18, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 18

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 18, 1970: FAA's first IBM 9020 computer and its associated software program became operational at the Los Angeles ARTCC (see Jun 30, 1967). The new computer system was at the heart of the new semiautomated airway air traffic control system--NAS En Route Stage A. This equipment reduced controller workload by automatically handling incoming flight information messages, performing necessary calculations, and distributing flight data strips, as needed, to controller positions. The agency planned to install similar equipment at all of the centers, and with the new automated nationwide system each center would have the capability to collect and distribute information about each aircraft's course and altitude to all the sector controllers along its flight path. The new computers also had the ability to record and distribute any changes registered in aircraft flight plans en route. (See Dec 30, 1968, and Feb 13, 1973.) “

This piece of history should sound familiar to you. It was just last week (Feb 13) that I touched on it. This system is the heart and soul of the air traffic control system. It’s the brains -- the guts -- the big enchilada. Pay attention to the date -- 1970 -- 38 years ago.

If the FAA were a business office, without this system you’d be back to typewriters and carbon paper. Secretaries would still be writing memos in shorthand and then typing them out. The boss wouldn’t know how to type.

At the time, this was the most complex computer program out there (at least the ones we know about.) The FAA tried to modernize it once before under a program called the Advanced Automation System. It was a failure of monumental proportions. The gist of it is that controllers still -- 38 years later -- operate with the core of this program on a daily basis: Flight Data Processing. It’s buried under layers of new computers, monitors and updated software languages but the core program is still there.

The current effort to rewrite the program is called ERAM -- En Route Automation Modernization. If you don’t have time to keep up will all the going-ons in the FAA but you would still like to get a feel for how things are going -- this is the program to watch. And this is the first thing to watch for.

”ERAM Delivery

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is on budget and ahead of schedule with a system that will increase capacity by enabling air traffic controllers to track more aircraft at high altitudes. Lockheed Martin, contractor for the En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) equipment, delivered the system to the FAA six months ahead of schedule – meeting a major milestone in the FAA’s Flight Plan. “

After 38 years, a 2.5 billion dollar fiasco called AAS that was supposed to do the same thing and a dozen different facelifts -- ERAM is “on time.”

For a slightly different version of the truth, take a look at this from the Air Line Pilot’s Association -- better known as (ALPA)

”ERAM involves huge risks because of its size and complexity. The FAA has spent more than $930 million on ERAM so far; the total tab could push $2 billion. One reason is that ERAM must be completed, tested, and deployed by 2010-the year when the vendor who supports the current ARTCC system will cease to do so. Delaying ERAM deployment could be very costly.

Despite the high cost of ERAM, the initial system will add no new capabilities to enroute ATC. Enhancements such as automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), which involves aircraft automatically transmitting GPS position to ATC and other aircraft, and controller-pilot datalink communications (CPDLC), will not be added until the first ERAM upgrade-now scheduled for 2012. “

(Emphasis added)

Don Brown
February 18, 2008

FAA History Lesson -- February 17

From the FAA Historical Chronology, 1926-1996...

”Feb 17, 1974: A soldier flew a stolen Army helicopter to the White House, where guards open fire with shotguns. Wounded in the legs, the soldier landed on the lawn and was taken into custody. “

You never know what you’ll find in the FAA’s history. Always keep in mind that there are a variety of subjects in it I don't normally post here. And now, for something more in keeping with my usual fare...

”Feb 17, 1994: FAA announced that it was implementating civil use of the Initial Operational Capability (IOC) of the Global Positioning System (GPS). IOC signified that the system’s 24 satellites were operating in their assigned orbit and providing signals. FAA also stated that it had granted approval for certification of two types of GPS signal receivers. (See Dec 17, 1993, and Jun 2, 1994.) “

Don Brown
February 17, 2008

If I Can Do the Math...

Once again, Business Week has an article about the controller shortage. There is nothing quite like money to get everyone’s attention. I never thought that money did much for dead people. That makes safety more important in my book but alas, it is money that gets the attention of the living.

Anyway, I was struck by some of the numbers in the article used by NATCA and the FAA to convince the American Public as to which one is telling the truth.

The FAA tells Business Week that “More than 90 candidates were interviewed last month...“ Okay. “Candidates” and “interviewed” doesn’t equate to controllers but the number was only for one “regional office” and I assume there are several.

“But the union says more than six veteran controllers per day retired between Oct. 1 and Jan. 5,...“ I assume the number NATCA used is correct but I also assume those dates were particularly bad for the FAA. However, I’ve seen the calculations made from last year and I know that this year is expected to be worse. Let’s run some numbers.

“Six controllers per day” times “last month” is 6 times 30. That equals 180 real-life controllers retiring while the FAA was interviewing “90 candidates.” Okay, the interviewing was for just one region. Maybe we need to look at the whole quote in context.

”More than 90 candidates were interviewed last month at the new processing center at the FAA's regional office in New York. The first hires to participate in the process received job offers within two weeks and will start at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City this month. Other centers will be established this spring in the busy hubs of Atlanta, Chicago and elsewhere, according to the agency.”

“Other centers will be established this spring...” That is just a little vague isn’t it ?

”The FAA plans to hire more than 1,800 new controllers this year... “

That is more precise but it is also misleading. It’s a nice number but they aren’t hiring controllers. They’re hiring “candidates”, wannabe controllers, trainees. And just as sure as God made little green apples a significant portion of them will not make it through training to become controllers.

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, controllers are retiring. Let’s say we’re only losing five a day instead of the six per day NATCA says. 5 x 365 = 1,825 per year.

Do you see the problem ? At five per day the FAA is losing controllers faster than they are hiring trainees. If you start adding in the truth while you’re playing with the numbers the picture just gets bleaker. Historically, the wash out rate for trainees is around 50 percent. The FAA would need to hire 3,600 trainees to replace 1,800 controllers -- starting at least two years ago. Either that or the FAA has to stop the bleeding and get retirements down below 3 a day -- starting at least two years ago. They didn’t.

From an older article in Government Executive:

”Veteran controllers have been retiring at a rate of more than three per day since the start of the current fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, 2006, NATCA reported. “

Training a controller takes time. You can train somebody to be a controller in two years but it’s a bad idea. I know, I did it in two years and two days. Nothing replaces experience. You can cram the training into two years instead of four (or five) but you can’t cram the experience in too.

Now, if I can do the math so can the FAA. They can’t be that stupid. I’ve said that before. I wish I had a nickel for every time I’ve said it. As I showed you yesterday, there is a worldwide shortage of controllers. Even if the Bush Administration were to contract out the ATC portion of the FAA, where would the contractors get the controllers ?

Are you getting the Flick yet ? Once again, it is NATCA that is telling you the truth. The best way to mitigate this crisis is to negotiate a good and fair contract with the controllers and stop the bleeding of experienced controllers. The price the American Public will have to pay -- sooner or later -- goes up every, single day. And if you think I’m talking about just money you still don’t have the Flick.

Don Brown
February 16, 2008

A World Apart

Let’s see now...where were we ? Oh yes. At the beginning of this month I told you about the shortage of air traffic controllers in Australia leading to the occasional closing of airspace. This week it’s the same story on the other side of the planet -- Ireland.

”Last Saturday a dozen flights were cancelled at Shannon Airport after the controllers refused to work overtime. There was also disruption at Shannon earlier last Wednesday night and last month 32 flights at Dublin airport were also grounded by the dispute.“

I’m intrigued by the (seemingly) worldwide shortage of controllers (why and why now ?) and I’m fascinated by the responses in each country. Australia just closes up shop, announces the airspace is uncontrolled and says “y'all be careful.” The Irish “close the airport.“ Of course, that is just what I’m learning from the Press and we all know how the Press can get an aviation story wrong.

What seems to be clear in this story, though, is that the Irish controllers can refuse to work overtime. American controllers can say they don’t want to work overtime but they can’t refuse it. Trust me on this one. There’s a story going around amongst controllers that an ARTCC controller worked 16 hours the other day (actually night) when the midnight shift didn’t show up and management couldn’t find a replacement. If true (and every indication so far leads me to believe it is true) it would be a violation of the FAA’s own policies. Controllers are limited to 10 hour days for safety reasons (i.e. fatigue.) If American controllers could actually refuse overtime we would be shutting our airports down too.

As I hope I’ve made clear numerous times, American Federal employees might be allowed a union but they have very little power. I know that many people don’t believe this -- the right wing of the Republican party has had a very successful propaganda campaign in place for years to convince people otherwise. Regardless of the propaganda, I think incidents like this make the truth clear. If American controllers could refuse overtime as a labor tactic they would. But they don’t have the right to refuse overtime so the point is moot.

If you take that fact to the theoretical realm it starts to get uncomfortable. It is a bedrock belief in unions that an individual has the right to refuse work. That doesn’t mean a right to refuse work without consequences -- it just means it is a right. Think “unalienable Right” -- like Liberty. Without the Right to refuse work you are nothing but a slave.

What is fair -- what is Just -- then becomes a matter of consequences. If the consequence of refusing work is to lose your Life, then you are still a slave. If the consequence of refusing work is to lose your Liberty, you are still enslaved. Do you remember the images of the PATCO controllers in chains after refusing to work ?

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. “

We talk much of Freedom in the United States. Perhaps we should do a little more thinking and a little less talking.

When the Republican right wing loses this argument on its merits they proceed to play the fear card. They would have you believe that America would fall into utter chaos. Our standing in the world would be threatened. If unions were given any power it would threaten America’s standard of living.

I’ve referred you to the Human Development Index before and it’s worth taking another look. Australia (#3) and Ireland (#5) are both rated above the United States (#12.) Furthermore, if you’ll take the time to look, the U.S. has a down arrow next to its listing. Do you think Ireland’s standing in the world is threatened because their air traffic controllers can refuse to work overtime ?

Unions don’t threaten America, freedom or our economy. Excessive power in the hands of any one organization does threaten us -- and anybody else. That organization could be a union organization. Or it can be a business organization. Or a political party. Or a government. The phrase “checks and balances” comes to mind.

Keeping organizations in check so as to provide a balance of power is a constant, never-ending battle. You’ve got to ask yourself a question or two. Who has too much power right now -- at this moment in time ? How can you tell ? The same way you can always tell.

Follow
The
Money

Don Brown
February 15, 2008

Second Cup

Don’t you just hate it when the coffee maker isn’t lined up just right and overflows all over the kitchen counter ? I know I do.

In the mean time, go read this outstanding editorial from Robert Reich in The New York Times. Mr. Reich’s blog is on my list (look left -- hey, that’s funny even if no pun was intended) for a reason.

Talk to you later.

Don Brown
February 15, 2008

DARPA Looks at ATC

DARPA -- the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is looking at the application of artificial intelligence in Air Traffic Control (ATC.) Yes, it’s that DARPA. The one that invented the internet.

Several thoughts come to mind -- Al Gore and the internet, FAA management and artificial intelligence, Pie in the Sky -- but I think I’ll let them all pass. And no, you aren’t the first one to think of SkyNet from The Terminator either. Check out the comment section of the article linked above.

Moving on to more important matters, it seems as if channel 9 on United Airline’s airplanes has become a bargaining tool. For those that don’t know, channel 9 on United Airline’s flights allows the passengers to listen to the pilot and air traffic control communications.

Several thoughts about this interesting article also come to mind. Thoughts like, nobody bothered to ask the controllers what they think about their transmissions being broadcast to the passengers.

I probably had a unique take on this quote from the article.

” Many travelers says they find the rapid-fire communications and sometimes lighthearted banter with controllers far more entertaining than the normal fare of second-run movies and music collections offered on in-flight entertainment systems.”

I’m curious -- how much do you think United Airlines pays for those “second-run movies and music collections “ they play on the other channels ? Just sayin’. The FAA says it can’t afford a contract. I’m just thinking about outside sources of revenue.

There’s a flip side to that coin too.

“And some nervous fliers say they find it soothing to hear their captain's confident voice.“

I bet controllers could put some things on the air that wouldn’t make the passengers less nervous. Again, I’m just sayin’. Just making conversation.

The American Public has a well-developed sense of fair play. Marion Blakey and the Bush Administration liked to use the word “fair” a lot while their actions were anything but. They would cry poverty while squandering the taxpayer’s money on various and assorted questionable tax breaks and wars.

Controllers can think outside the box too. They can also play dirty. It doesn’t take artificial intelligence to figure out that their ability to have an impact on the National Airspace System is immense. The fact that they have chosen to “color within the lines” so far speaks to their sense of fairness and their professionalism. It would be a mistake to think that their sense of fair play and patience is limitless.

If I was a deep thinker, this is what I would think. For controllers, seeking redress from the Bush Administration is hopeless. Controllers could fight and win -- but they can’t win without a fight. The Congress is currently controlled by the Democrats but -- so far -- they have failed to act to alleviate the controller’s concerns.

It looks as if the next President will be a Democrat. There wouldn’t be much benefit in antagonizing a brand new President (think Reagan) -- especially one that might help your cause -- so if you wanted to make a statement, now would be the time. What kind of statement ? One like this:



As far as opportunities, they are virtually limitless. Or as Maverick from Top Gun said; it’s a target-rich environment. And that isn’t the half of it. With civil aviation accounting for 9 percent of the U.S. GDP, the opportunities for economic mischief aren’t limited to a tea party in Boston Harbor. Everybody and everything flies. Republicans fly to Minnesota, Democrats fly to Denver, golfers fly to Augusta, GA and the whole world (believe it or not) flies into Oshkosh, WI. Just ask the EAA.

It’s a good thing I’m not a deep thinker. Otherwise I might think myself into a world of trouble. I think everybody ought to do their job and spend their time thinking about how to do it better. For controllers, that would mean safer, more orderly and more expeditiously.

Artificial Intelligence ? Bah ! Humbug ! Somebody needs to concentrate on showing some plain-old human intelligence before this situation blows up in our faces.

Don Brown
February 14, 2008